Saturday, April 04, 2026

Taxing sins.

"India's economic outlook remains supported by strong domestic demand and improving high-frequency indicators, but rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose significant risks, including possibility of stagflation, according to a report by Morgan Stanley." ET. "India's net Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose to Rs 1.78 trillion in March 2026, registering a growth of 8.2% compared to the same period last year, as per official data." Gross GST collections grew 8.8% to Rs 2 trillion. "For the full financial year 2025-26, gross GST collections rose 8.3% year-on-year to over Rs 22.27 trillion, while net GS revenue grew 7.1% to Rs 19.34 trillion." ET. Starting on 22 September 2025, GST rates were reduced to 5%  from 12% on a range of commonly used goods and to 18% from 28% on automobiles, air conditioners, televisions and washing machines. cleartax.in. If collections have increased despite lower rates, it means that demand and sales have surged. Unfortunately, fruit juices, non-alcoholic beverages and carbonated beverages continue to be taxed at 40%. "India's taxation for non-alcoholic beverages stands out as one of the most onerous in the world." "The median global tax rate for carbonated beverages hovers around 18.4%." Also, at 351.9 million tonnes, India had the second largest horticultural production in 2022-23, so lower taxes would increase demand for fruit juices, wrote Aruna Sharma. All these drinks are treated as 'sin' products possibly because, "India is among the top three countries globally with the highest number of children affected by excess weight, with about 41 million aged 5-19 living with high body mass index (BMI), including nearly 14 million with obesity." "The rise is being driven by easy access to calorie-dense foods, sugary drinks and ultra-processed products, along with declining physical activity and increasing screen time." TOI. "A debate around banning social media for children under 16 is gathering momentum in India," as Australia has done, but "Experts, however, warn that such a ban would not be easy in India and could face legal challenges." BBC. Municipalities have to arrange easily accessible playing grounds and swimming pools for children to exercise in. India's middle class is becoming poorer. "A family that lived comfortably on Rs 1 million in 2016 would now need close to Rs 2 million a year." As prices have surged, "Their salary, in most cases, has barely moved. The middle class is on a treadmill, and every year the belt speeds up." BBC. Poverty has a strong indirect relation to obesity in developed countries (Medical News Today) but this phenomenon is now being seen in low and middle income countries as well. As salaries stagnate, both parents have to work to continue the same standard of living, so there is no time to cook. It is easier to order junk food online. What is a greater sin - non-alcoholic beverages, social media, tasty calories without nutrition, or falling salaries? Who should we ask? Government, priests or people. Difficult.            

Thursday, April 02, 2026

Make it entertaining.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump delivered a primetime address to the nation on Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran's nuclear program. The White House. The reaction to his speech has been due to hatred of Trump rather than a dispassionate analysis of Iran's nuclear capability and its determination to build a nuclear weapon. "Trump, facing a war-wary American public and sliding poll numbers," "stopped short of offering a firm timeline for an end to hostilities." Reuters. This is not a game of American football whose timing is dictated by television companies. "An average professional football game lasts 3 hours and 12 minutes, but if you tally up the time when the ball is actually in play, the action amounts to a mere 11 minutes." A Wall Street Journal "analysis found that an average NFL broadcast spent more time on replays (17 minutes) than live play." "The average NFL game includes 20 commercial breaks containing more than 100 ads." Quartz, Perhaps, the US Army could show commercials on laxatives after showing a missile striking an Iranian target. Or female soldiers could show how to get in and out of Interceptor Body Armor (Premier Body Armor) without suffering a 'wardrobe malfunction' as in the halftime show at Superbowl XXXVIII (wikipedia). Americans would no longer be "war-wary" and the US government could potentially earn billions of dollars. "While threatening new air strikes if Iran tries to move the stockpile (of uranium), he (Trump) made no mention of sending special forces on a risky mission to seize it." Reuters. Revealing when and where special forces would attack would eliminate surprise and expose them to counterattack. It would be better if they carry body cameras (wikipedia) showing live action, and uniforms carrying ads. Very entertaining. Trump says that the US produces its own oil and has no need to buy from the Gulf. Those countries that do should "build up some delayed courage...Go to the Strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves." He was probably addressing craven Europeans who have been protected by Nato, while contributing very little. The US spent $$980 billion on Nato last year which was 62% of the Nato total. BBC. Trump has threatened to pull out of Nato, which consists of European countries, plus Canada.  Reuters. If the US withdraws its troops and arms from Nato countries it would reassure Russia (wikipedia) and would end the conflict in Ukraine. Apparently, Germany is building up its army because it fears an attack by Russia. BBC. This is so much rubbish that it insults our intelligence. Russia has enormous natural resources and would want nothing from Germany. Secondly, Germany invaded the Soviet Union on 22 June 1941 in Operation Barbarossa  (wikipedia). The Soviet Union won World War II by defeating the German Army, losing 8 million soldiers and 16 million civilians. History Ireland.On 24 June 1812, Nepoleon of France invaded Russia  (wikipedia) and suffered a crushing defeat. It would be best if the US breaks away from these lying, treacherous Europeans and eradicates the fanatical Iranian regime. That will end support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, bring peace to the Middle East and prevent further bloodshed. Oil prices will plunge as sanctions are removed on Iran and the global economy will boom. But first, entertain US citizens. Live coverage with commercials. Polls will skyrocket.   

Losing to AI.

In India, "The artificial intelligence (AI) explosion and the adoption of cloud services are growing rapidly, and as a result, our digital footprint is seeing a record growth. Currently our data center (DC)'s capacity is around 1.5 GW, but we are looking at a mega leap, potentially reaching 9 GW or more by 2030." ET. But, this is not creating employment. "Between 2004-05 and 2023, while approximately 5 million graduates were added each year, only around 2.8 million found employment, and an even smaller share found salaried employment, contributing to rising graduate employment and slowing earnings growth," said the State of Working India 2026 Report from the Azim Premji University. India has "367 million young people between the ages of 15 and 29," and 269 million constitute the potential workforce. "Between 2007 and 2017, the share of students from the poorest households enrolled in higher education rose from 8% to 17%." But, "Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 20% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than the less educated." BBC. The Economic Survey of Delhi 2025-26 showed, "At every stage of schooling, girls are now enrolling in greater numbers than boys." At primary school level the ratio stands at 107.2 girls to 97.4 boys, at secondary school it is 104.7 girls to 98 boys and at higher secondary school it is 87.2 girls to 78.7 boys. TOI. This is in spite of "the sex ratio (at birth) in the capital has declined to 920 females per 1,000 males in 2024 as compared to 922 in 2023." The national average is 940 females per 1000 males. TNIE. "The overall unemployment rate among all graduates aged 22-29 runs as high as 33%. This rate drops to below 4% after age 30." "Young men eventually succumb to economic pressure and accept whatever work is available. Young women by contrast, often exit the labor force altogether, retreating into unpaid domestic care work. The data shows this starkly: male unemployment falls because men find some job, female unemployment falls because women stop looking," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Across India, the quiet machinery of automation has been reshaping - and in many cases eliminating - jobs that the middle class was built on." Unable to earn a decent income, about 9 million Indians lost $12 billion speculating on the Futures and Options (F&O) stock market, "roughly equal to the federal government's entire annual education budget." White collar job creation has fallen from 11% growth before 2020 to just 1% today and "Across IITs nationally, 8,000 of 21,500 graduates remain unemployed." A family that lived comfortably on Rs 1 million in 2016 would now need close to Rs 2 million a year. The salary, in most cases, has barely moved. The middle class is on a treadmill, and every year the belt speeds up." BBC. "Oracle has reportedly begun a major round of job cuts in India, with around 12,000 employees said to have been laid off and more reductions likely in the coming weeks, according to affected staff." ET. "Over the past three-and-a-half decades, India's software industry has created millions of white-collar jobs, spawning a new middle class driven by high ambition and strong purchasing power." But, "Some CEOs have even warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs." BBC. It's a disaster for those laid off. Humiliation with despair. And, no future.